This work was originally written in 2010. I recently went through a couple of USB sticks and decided it was highly relevant given recent events. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has certainly brought the EU and other Western nations reliance on Russian fossil fuels to global attention. I will argue that it also highlights how interconnected the global economy has become, meaning that a major conflict in Eastern Europe has critical consequences globally and not just in Europe.
Due to the failure of the Russians to gain a swift victory such consequences increase the longer Ukraine keeps on fighting. A Russian victory would have terrible consequences for Europe and beyond, while it’s defeat could witness it react in unpredictable ways. For Ukraine, the consequences have been tragic since the first day of the invasion, a completely unjustified act of aggression instigated by President Putin.. It is highly unlikely that he would be brought to justice, though his removal from power cannot be entirely ruled out.
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